Incrementalism and Risk Aversion Why People Don't Look for Secrets

Maps used to have blank spaces. If you lived in the 18th century, you could become an explorer and find something entirely new. Today, our maps are finished, and we assume the world holds no more hidden truths. This belief is exactly why people don't look for secrets in their businesses or careers. We’ve traded the thrill of discovery for the safety of the known. By assuming every hard problem has already been solved, we stop searching for the breakthroughs that move the world from zero to one.

Defining the Hidden Truths of Zero to One

In his book Zero to One, Peter Thiel explains that secrets are truths that are important but currently unknown. These aren't impossible mysteries like the nature of the soul. Instead, they're difficult tasks that are actually doable if someone has the courage to look. Every world-changing company is built on a secret that most people have overlooked. If you believe there are no secrets left, you'll never try to build a company that does something new.

Secrets matter because they give you an edge in a competitive market. A business built on a conventional truth won't make a profit because everyone else is already doing it. For example, less than 1% of new businesses started each year in the U.S. receive venture funding. These funded companies usually possess a secret that promises exponential growth rather than incremental gain. Without a secret, you’re just another commodity business fighting for survival in a crowded field.

Four Obstacles Blocking Your Path

The Stifling Grip of Incrementalism

From a very young age, we're taught that the right way to live is to move in tiny, predictable steps. Our schools reward us for doing exactly what's on the syllabus and nothing more. If you learn something that isn't on the test, you don't get credit for it. This training carries over into the professional world, where managers prioritize quarterly goals over long-term visions. We've become a society of "straight-A" students who are afraid to look beyond the next assignment.

Overcoming Risk Aversion and Innovation Fears

People are fundamentally scared of being wrong. Looking for a secret means you might end up lonely and isolated, which is a terrifying prospect for most professionals. The fear of being lonely and right is hard enough, but the fear of being lonely and wrong is often unbearable. Consequently, risk aversion and innovation don't sit well together in modern corporate cultures. Most people would rather fail conventionally than succeed by taking a path that looks weird to their peers.

Why Complacency in Business Kills Discovery

Social and professional elites often have the most freedom to explore, yet they believe in secrets the least. If you’re already a partner at a top law firm or a manager at a tech giant, your life is comfortable. Searching for a new secret seems unnecessary when you can collect high salaries on what’s already been built. This complacency in business leads to a "rent-seeker" mindset where the goal is to manage existing assets rather than invent new ones. It’s the reason why the most powerful organizations are often the last to innovate.

Why People Don't Look for Secrets in Modern Markets

Globalization has convinced us that the world is a level playing field where everyone sees the same information. This is known as flat world theory, and it’s a major deterrent to original thinking. If a valuable secret existed, you might tell yourself that someone in a global talent pool of billions would’ve found it already. This doubt makes individuals feel too small to contribute anything unique. We assume that if something were possible, it would already be done, which leaves the world’s biggest problems sitting in plain sight, waiting for someone to notice them.

Lessons from Companies That Stopped Searching

The decline of Hewlett-Packard (HP) is a stark example of what happens when a company stops looking for secrets. In the early 1990s, HP was a powerhouse of invention, releasing the first affordable color printers and superportable laptops. By mid-2000, its market cap reached $135 billion. However, once the company stopped inventing and started focusing on consulting and support, its value plummeted. By late 2012, HP was worth just $23 billion, barely more than its 1990 value when adjusted for inflation.

Cleantech companies in the mid-2000s made a similar mistake by following conventions instead of secrets. Entrepreneurs started thousands of companies based on the "easy truth" that the world needed green energy. Because they didn't have a unique technological secret, they faced brutal competition. This led to a massive bubble where more than 40 solar manufacturers filed for bankruptcy in 2012 alone. These firms were so focused on the general social need that they forgot to find a specific, proprietary advantage that others couldn't copy.

Finding Your Competitive Edge This Week

1. Audit Your Industry's Taboos

Look for the things that people in your field are not allowed to talk about. Taboos are often where the best secrets are hidden because they represent truths that people are socially incentivized to ignore. Ask yourself which parts of your business model everyone accepts as a rule but feels uncomfortable explaining. If you find a practice that everyone hates but nobody questions, you've likely found a secret.

2. Identify Untapped Capacity

Search for resources that are currently being wasted or underused in plain sight. Airbnb found a secret in the fact that millions of people had spare rooms they weren't using. Uber saw that millions of people had cars and free time to drive them. These weren't complex scientific breakthroughs; they were simple secrets about human behavior and unused assets that were right in front of everyone's eyes.

3. Start a Targeted Conspiracy

Once you find a secret, don't tell the whole world. A great company is essentially a group of people who are in on a secret that outsiders don't yet understand. Share your discovery only with the people you need to build the solution. This allows you to develop your advantage in private before the rest of the market realizes what you’ve found and tries to compete with you.

Risks of Searching for the Impossible

One critique of Thiel’s focus on secrets is that it can lead entrepreneurs to chase mysteries instead of doable tasks. A mystery is something that may never be solved, like predicting the exact movement of a random market or finding a fountain of youth. If you confuse a mystery with a secret, you’ll waste years on a project that has no path to completion. Some skeptics also argue that the "secret" is often just a fancy word for a lucky break that seems obvious only in hindsight. They suggest that focus on unique secrets might lead founders to ignore proven business fundamentals that actually keep a company alive during its first few years. This perspective warns that being too contrarian can sometimes be just as irrational as following the crowd.

Discovery isn't a finished project, even though our culture treats it like one. The biggest opportunities belong to those who reject the idea that everything important is already known. Spend one hour today listing every "obvious" rule in your industry that you suspect is actually a mistake. Write down your most unpopular belief about your current career path and search for the evidence that supports it.