How I Decide Which Trades to Take (and Avoid)
Some days are quieter than others in the market, and Monday was shaping up to be one of them. On days like these, I avoid chasing big moves in volatile zones and focus on clear, confirmed signals. It’s a core part of my approach to this —discipline over drama. Here’s a look at what popped up on my radar and how I handled it.
A Hesitant Breakout in the AUD/USD
The Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar pair confirmed a breakout. The only problem? It didn’t have that strong upward push I love to see. Still, a break is a break, so I decided to enter with a small position of just two contracts. A big part of sizing your position comes down to feel. When I see a setup like this, I’m not going to ignore the entry, but I’m definitely not going to risk a huge position on it. My plan was to aim for the first couple of profit targets and scale out as the price hit each one.
Looking at the chart, the psychological level of 0.7400 was sitting just above my entry point. To play it safe, I set my final profit target just below that at 0.7395, a level where I could exit one or both contracts. I wasn’t confident in drawing Fibonacci levels from any recent moves, so I fell back on my pivots. The pivot point at 0.7387 was close enough to my entry that I could ignore it and keep my focus locked on the 0.7395 target.
A Clear Short on the USD/JPY
Next, the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen pair gave a confirmation, and I went short at 117.91. For this trade, I had two profit targets in mind. Since I was going to be at my desk, I decided to manage my stop-loss and the second target manually. However, I immediately placed a limit order to buy at 117.76, which was my first profit target at the 0.886 Fibonacci level.
I skipped the 0.618 Fib level because it was only about 10-12 pips away from my entry—too close to be meaningful. The next support was at the full retracement level of 117.70, but that was just six pips from my first exit, so I ignored that one as well and set my sights on the 1.272 Fibonacci extension for my second target. Managing these kinds of is all about finding the right balance between risk and reward.
The Trade I Chose to Skip
I think it’s crucial to show examples of trades that, despite confirming, I ultimately choose not to enter. The New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar pair was a perfect example of this. By 10 A.M., the 0.6800 level was acting as clear resistance.
For a breakout trade to be viable for me, I needed to see that level flip from a ceiling to a floor—from resistance to support. The price made a few attempts to push through 0.6800, but it just didn’t look determined to stay above it. I usually wrap up my trading by 11 A.M. EST, and this trade had a major obstacle to overcome. It didn’t feel right, so I left it alone. Knowing when to walk away is key to running a successful .
An Update on an Open Position
On a final note, the EUR/USD position I was holding showed an interesting development. A doji candle formed, which is a sign of a stall or a potential reversal because the opening and closing prices are nearly identical. When a doji appears near a support or resistance level during a trend, it’s an alert. It represents balance, and balance is a trend-killer.
This doesn’t automatically mean the downtrend is over, but it does suggest the selling pressure is easing for now. My trailing stop remains at the prior support level of 1.1873. My next profit target is the 1.618 Fibonacci level. If the price can firmly close below that, I’ll consider trailing my stop down. For now, I’m just waiting for the level to trade so I can exit more of my position. This is the patient side of .
