Sometimes the Smartest Trade Is Walking Away
Some mornings, the market is quiet. With little major economic news on the docket, you get a chance to focus purely on price action, which is a welcome change of pace. On days like this, the most important part of isn't finding a setup, but having the discipline to wait for one.
Let's walk through a recent session to see what this looks like in practice.
A Missed Opportunity in the Kiwi
Starting with the New Zealand dollar, or the "kiwi," I noticed it broke down early—around 4:00 A.M. on my charts. For me, that was just too early. The move on the 60-minute chart was sharp and fast. The only realistic way to have caught it would have been with a proactive sell stop order already in place.
But looking at the 240-minute chart, the story was a bit different. The breakdown there was more subtle, giving just enough time for a manual entry. The catch? It was a midnight candle on a four-hour chart. So again, a proactive order would have been the best bet. By the time I sat down to analyze things in the morning, the move was long gone.
This is a good reminder that certain currency pairs, like the kiwi, Aussie, and yen, are most active during the evening and early morning hours in the U.S. (roughly 7:00 P.M. to 4:00 A.M. EST). A key part of is always asking yourself, "Whose market is open right now?"
Resisting the Chase: Yen and Pound
The yen was on a tear, continuing a strong run from the past couple of days. When you see a chart climbing that steeply, the temptation is to jump in. But that’s a classic mistake. The only play here is to sit back and wait for a pullback. Chasing a runaway market rarely ends well.
Similarly, the pound was in a strong sell-off, showing no signs of slowing down. With the Wave indicator pointing firmly down, patience is the only strategy. I have to wait for either a bounce or for prices to consolidate, allowing the Wave to level out. Trying to jump into a speeding train, whether it's going up or down, is a recipe for disaster.
The end-of-day chart for the pound was almost enough to make me hit the "Sell" button. . Prices had clearly broken through a key support level we were watching. But there was one problem: the MACD histogram didn't confirm the move. This is a non-negotiable rule in my strategy.
Does this rule sometimes keep me out of a good trade? Absolutely. But for every one it costs me, it saves me from countless bad entries. I’ll gladly forgive the occasional missed opportunity in exchange for the capital it consistently protects.
The Psychology of a Slow Day
After hitting profit targets on the euro and the Swissy the day before, both pairs were now in a holding pattern. The euro found support, and the Swissy was trading at a higher resistance level. In both cases, all I can do is wait for a correction or a new setup. This is where the mental game of trading really comes into play.
It’s easy to get frustrated on a day like this. You might feel tempted to chase trades you missed or beat yourself up for getting out of a winning position too early. I don't worry about any of that. My job today is simply to take the market’s pulse, not to force a trade that isn't there. For those exploring , this mindset is crucial. Trading is not just about making money; it's about managing risk and preserving capital.
On quiet days in the forex market, there's no reason I can't look elsewhere. I can check out the E-mini S&P 500 when the stock market opens, or look at end-of-day charts for commodities. Many successful come from being flexible. Once you understand how to read charts, any liquid market becomes a potential opportunity. This broader perspective helps in wisely across different asset classes and understanding at its core: a game of probabilities and patience.
The Final Verdict: No Trades Today
A look at the Canadian and Australian dollars confirmed the day's theme. The Canadian dollar rallied without offering a clean entry point, and the Aussie showed a promising breakdown on the daily chart—but, once again, without MACD confirmation.
I never, ever break that rule. It’s the cornerstone of my momentum strategy.
So after reviewing all six major pairs plus the kiwi, the conclusion was clear: no high-probability setups. And that’s perfectly fine. A day with no trades is not a tragedy; it’s a demonstration of discipline. That pound setup is still on my radar, but for now, the conditions aren't right. It’s a beautiful day, and sometimes the best trade you can make is to close the charts and go enjoy it.
