It’s just after 4 a.m., and I’m already up. Today is shaping up to be a big one in the markets, with some serious volatility expected around 8:30 a.m., and I don't want to be late to the party. A strong cup of Earl Grey tea is helping me get dialed in as I get ready to scan the charts, maybe to make up for getting a late start yesterday.
I woke up late this morning, even for my standards. The last few days have been draining, and I’m starting to feel the effects of writing two books nearly back-to-back. I’ve discovered that sitting at a laptop and typing for hours on end doesn’t burn many calories, so I’ve been hitting the gym hard. The result? I’m sore, craving protein shakes, and sleeping for 10 hours straight. Moderation has never been my thing.
Some mornings, the market is quiet. With little major economic news on the docket, you get a chance to focus purely on price action, which is a welcome change of pace. On days like this, the most important part of isn't finding a setup, but having the discipline to wait for one.
Some Mondays start with a jolt. I woke up to find my position in the Japanese yen had gone absolutely wild overnight. It blew past my initial profit target, so I didn’t hesitate—I closed the trade immediately, taking both lots off the table at 117.20. I could have tried to manage it for more, but my profit target was originally 116.80. Anything above that felt like a gift, and my trading plan is so ingrained now that following the rules is second nature. This kind of is a great way to start the week, but it's crucial not to let an early win go to your head. It was time to refocus.
On a Sunday afternoon, I like to get a feel for the early market action. My approach to often starts by pulling up the 180-minute chart for the yen, and this week I saw exactly what I expected: the price was moving sideways in a tight range. This is pretty standard for the start of the week as the wakes up with the Sydney and Tokyo sessions.
It feels a little strange to be nearing the end of this month-long project. For the last 25 days, I’ve been thinking out loud, and sharing this process with you has been incredibly insightful. It’s forced me to deconstruct my own trading habits—actions that had become so second nature they were almost subconscious. I was trained to see specific chart setups and simply react.
I’m having a pretty light day, mostly rereading the manuscript for a book that will be in your hands by summer. It’s a surreal feeling, turning these typed words into a hardcover book. With my deadline just five days away, I’m trying to cram in a few last-minute charts and edits.
I was listening to the financial news the other morning, and the commentators were all focused on Google. Since the start of the year, the stock had been all over the place, with frequent gaps and high volatility. The steady, organized climb it had enjoyed for years was starting to look more like the chaotic distribution phase you see after a bubble bursts.
It’s not even 4:30 A.M., and I’m pretty sure there isn’t enough Earl Grey tea in all of Florida to get me going. But I promised myself I’d be up early, so here I am. As I scan the charts, I can see the USD/CHF is still on my radar, and the Canadian dollar is continuing its slide. My first thought, and my first warning to myself, is simple: don’t revenge trade.